Quote:
Originally Posted by ws111222
HIV Transmission Probability
Needle stick injury3 1/300
Receptive anal intercourse 1/100
Receptive vaginal intercourse 1/1000
Insertive vaginal intercourse 1/2000
Insertive anal intercourse 1/2500
Receptive fellatio with ejaculation 1/2500
Sharing needles6 1/150
As in a game of russian roulette, an infection could occur at the first exposure.
Can refer to shim clinic for details and reference.
Anyway, I think BBBJ is very risky, even so many guys like it.
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I must point out that I find the above information is rather partial and incomplete (at least for those related to sexual activities)!!
You should note that these are the probabilities CONDITIONAL on two conditions (1) you're not wearing a condom, and (2) your sexual partner is indeed confirmed to be HIV positive.
Then if you know the middle school probability rule, yo can calculate the probability that you really become infected. It is the prob. in the original post times the probability of (2), which in most cases a reasonable estimate is around 0.5% or even lower 0.1%, since these WLs are legally required to do regular STD check-ups and most of the time they only perform protected sex (I can provide the scientific reference for that, if needed).
So for instance, the prob. that you (male) become infected from "a single" unprotected virginal intercourse is then:
1/2000*0.5%= 1 in 400,000
So, this means it'd take more than 1000 yrs before you have a good change getting infected, if you perform this activity on a daily basis. To further put things in perspective:
Odds of being struck by lightning in a given year: 1/400,000
Odds of dying in an accident in a given year: 1/ 2,517
Odds of dying in an accident in your lifetime: 1/ 32
This does not mean nobody will get virus from a single unprotected contact, but the point is that this is just a THEORETICAL POSSIBILITY (because it's so unlikely for practical purposes). In other words, there is a theoretical chance that you can die from food poisoning and choked to death from drinking water every time you drink or eat, and indeed we see this kind of reports on the news from time to time. So would you consider stop drinking and eating?
I keep seeing lots of people here and on the web saying, even to people using condoms, "oh, your condom may break or slip, or part of your dick may not be covered, and you won't notice that. That way you'll for sure get the virus..so go see these WLs at your own risks." Common, sit down and do the math and don't play scare tactic!